Potomac Highlands Watershed School

Decision Matrix - Game Overview & Content

Overview

 

How do you capture the challenges faced by government officials charged with shaping our future?  That is, in large part, what our elected officials do - their decisions determine what our future will look like.  In West Virginia's Potomac Highlands region, those officials are county commissioners, planning commissions, county planners, and multi-county development authorities like Region 8.  

 

In Decision Matrix, you are a county planner whose very first assignment is to produce a ten-year county plan to encourage economic growth while preserving the well-being of the county and conserving the county's essential water resources.  In a few months, you will present your plan on “The Future of Mountain County” to the public.  No pressure!  Decision Matrix is found in the PHWS High School classroom. 

 

The eight economic development options available to you are:

  1. Install new waterlines up to five miles from town to serve 1,000 existing homes that currently get their water from wells

  2. Develop an industrial park to attract new businesses and create jobs. 

  3. Allow a developer to build a 36-hole golf course resort. 

  4. Enact a Farmland Protection Program to keep productive farmland in agricultural uses. 

  5. Create a recreation area and wildlife preserve

  6. Enact a Smart Growth plan would create county zoning rules to restrict future development and to conserve water resources. 

  7. Enact a buffer zone ordinance would help protect local water quality and enhance water recreation tourism.

  8. Allow a 1000 unit subdivision development.

 

You can only pick four of the eight options, and some options are incompatible with others.  For example, the Smart Growth plan will not allow the 1000 unit development.

 

Decision Matrix inevitably makes a number of simplifying decisions.  We used the "county planner" as a surrogate for all the entities involved in county government decision making.  The county planner in the game is really a combination County Planner/Economic Development Director.  The tasks assigned are typically accomplished by different employees at two different agencies, the Planning Commission and the Economic Development Authority.  Decisions are made by the two separate boards and by the county Commission, and the end result is often heavily determined by politics.  Perhaps the most artificial simplifying decision in the game is to make the "planner" choose between allowing a large golf resort, county owned recreation area, or a 1000-unit subdivision.  In reality, a county might choose to pursue all three, but we decided to make the planner's choice symbolic of the kind of future he envisions for the county. 

 

To the greatest extent practicable, descriptions of each option are based on real world economics and constraints.  We are grateful to area development professionals for their help in getting this part right (any mistakes are our own).

 

The outcomes are the result of gazing into a crystal ball.  In other words, the outcomes are GUESSES based on some assumptions and sprinkled with a bit (maybe a lot) of personal bias.  The assumptions have to do with how some of these options have played out in the real world of the Potomac Highlands.  For example, quite a few "shell" industrial parks have been established, and many have been less than unqualified successes - often remaining nearly empty for years.  In Decision Matrix, we assume that different options chosen along with the Industrial Park will make it more or less likely to succeed.  We call these interactions synergies.  Webster defines synergy as "to work together, combined or cooperative action."  It seems reasonable that some options would work together better than others, and that some options would be incompatible.    

 

We haven't had a social laboratory to consult on the Smart Growth issue, because smart growth requires that real limitations be placed on "what goes where" in a county, and West Virginia, by in large, has thus far been resistant to that idea.  There are many opinions about the benefits of Smart Growth; just try typing "smart growth" into Google - and stand back.  Here are a couple of Smart Growth quotes:

 

"Economic growth is desirable, as long as it is differentiated from physical growth. Unending physical growth, including population growth, will ultimately destroy us and the sustaining biosphere upon which we depend."

- Fred Elbel, CAIR  http://www.cairco.org/growth/smartgrowthmyths.html

 

"The only problem with many Smart Growth arguments is that the overwhelming majority of business people make decisions based upon dollars and cents, not on some sense of social or environmental responsibility. That’s not to say that they don’t care about those things, only that they know that if their company does not make money, they don’t stay in business."  Bill King is the chief editor of Expansion Management magazine at http://www.expansionmanagement.com/emstatic/smart_growth.asp

 

Decision Matrix Content

Introductory Text

Frame 1

 

Mountain County is well-known as a quiet and beautiful area in the Potomac Highlands.  Cedarville is the county seat with about 5000 residents.  Another 5000 people live in small towns and scattered houses throughout the county. 

    The county covers 500-square miles, with 75 percent in forest that protects a number of healthy native trout streams.  Valleys are mostly agricultural, with a mix of cattle and sheep farms, corn fields, and open pasture.  Overall, agricultural land accounts for about 20 percent of the county.  The county's single biggest industry, a manufacturer of Appalachian furniture, is located in Cedarville.  Other important non-farm industries include recreational outfitters, tourism lodging, forestry, and telemarketing.

    Mountain County residents are hungry for economic growth, but also worry about how that growth might affect their way of life.  They hope the new County Planner will direct the local economy along on a sustainable path, while preserving the natural beauty and rural lifestyle of the county.

 

Frame 2

 

Congratulations!  You are the newly elected County Planner of Mountain County.   Your first assignment is to produce a ten-year county plan and, in a few months, you will present your plan on “The Future of Mountain County” to the public.  The goal of your plan is to encourage economic growth while preserving the well-being of the county and conserving the county's essential water resources. 

    Your development resources are limited, and you have to be careful not to overspend the county’s $11 million development budget in the short term.  This budget is comprised of loans and general development funds.  You also have to be sure that your investments will yield a good long term result for the county and its residents.  You also have take into consideration the impact each option will have on the county’s water resources.  The county's geology does not allow construction of drinking water reservoirs, so your water supply is limited to groundwater and surface water in rivers and streams. 

    You will choose from a list of eight economic growth options.  Some of these options protect water resources, while others will use and may pollute water.  You have to balance all of these factors while making your decision.  You will pick four of these options to enhance the economic viability of Mountain County....

 

Frame 3

 

Your challenge is to meet the County's development needs in the long term, balance the management of the County's water resources, and not break the budget.

    Before you begin, you need to learn about each of the eight options for economic growth.  To read about each option, simply click on the name in the upper left corner.  The text for each option will appear in this box. Be sure to scroll down to view all of the information. As you read, you will notice that some choices positively and negatively affect others, and that some choices rule out others.  You should take a few notes about each option as you read to help you in making your decision.

 

Development Options

 

Waterlines

Background Information

 

The South Fork River has always been a reliable source of public water for Cedarville.  However, many residents in your county currently use wells, and would like a more reliable and safe source of drinking water.  To meet this need the county would install new waterlines up to five miles from town to serve 1,000 existing homes that currently get their water from wells, with excess capacity to serve 100 new homes.  In addition to the waterlines, the drinking water plant storage facilities would be expanded to handle the new customers and a minimal amount of additional need in the future.

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

This project would cost $9 million, but cost to the county is essentially zero. The county would pay for the project using state grants and a low-interest loan. Customer service fees would be used to pay back the loan over the next 15 years.  This would require a rate increase for existing customers, something many of them oppose. The project would create 75 temporary construction jobs for two years and one permanent new job at the drinking water plant.   

 

Supplying the new customers would use an additional 100 million gallons of water from the South Fork River every year. This might result in low flows during drought years, which could kill fish and other aquatic life and might violate permit requirements to maintain minimal in-stream flow.  This additional water use could keep high water use industries, such as poultry processing plants, from moving into the county.   Installing waterlines and selecting other options with large impacts on water resources could prevent future economic development and dramatically reduce county's available water resources.

 

Industrial Park

Background Information

 

Many residents would like the county to develop an industrial park to attract new businesses and create jobs.  Other residents are concerned over the population growth such a park might cause.  The county has an opportunity to purchase one of three land parcels near Cedarville which are suitable for this purpose.  If successful, an industrial park could produce needed county revenue, promote development and create jobs.  If it failed to attract enough businesses, the county would lose its investment and projected future return.  This could create a tight budget in the long term that might limit other public economic development options.

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

The county would invest $ 2.5 million into the park for the land purchase, infrastructure development, construction of one industrial building for lease, and marketing. The industrial park would be funded through state grants and loans.  Development of the site and construction of the industrial building would create 35 temporary jobs over three years.  If successful, the industrial park will create at least 750 jobs and produce a $10+ million return for the county over the first ten years.  This money would be used to help pay for increased costs for schools, emergency services, and other social needs caused by the influx of new residents seeking jobs.  It will also help offset the costs associated with these services for current residents. 

 

The county would not allow "wet" industries (industries that require large amount of water) to move into the park.  However, even the kinds of industries being recruited use a substantial amount of water.  These industries will create a strain on the South Fork River water supply during drought years since they will receive water from the drinking water plant. In order to prevent water shortages during drought years the county will have to properly manage water resources in other parts of the county.  The industrial park would also add water pollution to the South Fork, which would increase water treatment costs.

 

Golf Course

Background Information

 

A local family, which has lived in the county for five generations, is in financial trouble. They have decided to sell 2,500 acres off their homeplace to pay their debts.  The property is located in the headwaters region of a local trout fishery about five miles from Cedarville.  Ninety percent of the property is forested, ten percent is covered in hay fields, and a pond covers about 15 acres.  The family would prefer to see the county purchase the property for a park, but developers are also interested in buying the land.  One of the developers wants to build a 36-hole golf course resort.  If the golf course developer buys the property, 40 percent of woods would be timbered to install the course, a resort style lodge and 50 luxury houses. 

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

Development costs associated with the golf course would be paid for by the developer. The golf course and housing construction would create 100 temporary construction jobs for 3 years and 30 long term jobs for the county.  In the long term the county would be responsible for costs associated with schools, emergency services, and other social services necessary for the new residents.  These costs should be offset by the tax revenue generated by the golf course and associated businesses. 

 

In the long term, the quality and quantity of local water resources would be impaired by water use and pollution from the golf course.  The golf course alone would use on average 150,000 gallons of water per day, or nearly 110 million gallons per year - as much water as 1,200 families.  Water would be supplied by the pond and a well.  Local groundwater withdrawals could cause the nearby trout stream to dry up in the summer time during drought years, as well as impact flows in the South Fork River.  Water pollution from the course could result in increased drinking water treatment costs, and impact downstream water health if the pollution is not controlled. The golf course would help protect the groundwater recharge area, but recharge will be somewhat reduced due to the timbering and development of the property.

 

Farmland Protection

Background Information

 

The county would enact a Farmland Protection Program to keep productive farmland in agricultural uses.  Under the Program, landowners could voluntarily sell or purchase conservation easements on prime agriculture land.  Landowners would continue to own their land, but the easements would limit current and future use of the designated property to agriculture.  In addition to the purchase price, landowners would also gain tax advantages and protect their farmland forever.

 

A fund would be set up by the county to help pay for 50% of the fees associated with easements, the balance of the easement purchase would be paid through a federal farmland protection program.  The county would also promote rural tourism to help increase revenue for farmland residents.

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

The county will invest $500,000 into this initiative to pay for developing the program and an advertising campaign promoting agricultural tourism. Money for the conservation easement fund would come from a tax placed on the sale of homes. Two temporary jobs would be created for five years by the tourism promotion campaign, paid for in part by a grant from the WV Department of Tourism. The county expects a complete return on its investment over in the long-term.

 

Farmland Protection would help protect the farm economy and farming culture, conserve green space for wildlife, preserve the pastoral "viewscapes" that help draw tourists to the region, and conserve water resources by protecting areas for groundwater recharge. This will be important as water needs in other parts of the county increase due to development. Protecting farms could also help control water pollution in the long term.  This will help keep drinking water treatment costs lower, protect aquatic life, and provide clean water for recreation.

 

Recreation Area

Background Information

 

A local family, which has lived in the County for five generations, is in financial trouble. They have decided to sell 2,500 acres off their homeplace to pay their debts.  The property is located in the headwaters region of a local trout fishery about five miles from Cedarville.  Ninety percent of the property is forested, ten percent is covered in hay fields, and a pond covers about 15 acres.  The family would prefer to see the county purchase the property, and is offering the land to the county at a reduced price as an incentive - with the condition that they turn it into a park.  However, two developers (golf course and residential) are also interested in the land.  If the county purchases the land, it will create a recreation area and wildlife preserve where fishing, hiking, camping, and hunting would be allowed.  The DNR would manage the area once the recreation area is established, and will turn the best streams into catch and release brook trout fisheries. 

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

The county would invest $7 million into the recreation area for the land purchase and site development.  Site development would include the installation of campsites, bath houses, boat access to the pond, and hiking trails.  Site development would create 10 temporary construction jobs.   The recreation are would be funded with a $4 million state grant and $3 million low interest loan that the county would pay off over the next 15 years.  The county expects a full return on its recreation area investment over the long term from tourism, and expects the property will begin generating revenue for the county within 15 years.

 

This recreation area would protect local waterways and wildlife, as well as protect a groundwater recharge area.  This protection of water resources will be important during drought years, when the county's water supply could be strained by development in other areas.

 

Smart Growth Plan

Background Information

 

A smart growth plan would create county zoning rules to restrict future development and to conserve water resources.  The county would be zoned into five major categories: residential, industrial, farmland, recreation, and open space.  Large scale residential development would be restricted to an area extending about 2 miles from Cedarville. This zone would be open to housing, small business and community centers, and open green space. Industrial development would be limited to a small area located near Cedarville. Conservation easements would be encouraged in these areas to reduce taxes for county residents and promote open space protection.  The smart growth plan would restrict large housing subdivisions outside of the “residential” zone.  Golf course development would be acceptable in areas zoned for recreation as long as associated residential development was limited to 50 or fewer homes, and the golf course was developed using low-water use grasses and an overall design that reduced water consumption to 60% of a typical course.  Although WV State Law does not allow zoning restrictions on "complete use of natural resources by the owner" of non-urban lands, the smart growth plan would include a "sense of the county" that State permits for natural resource extraction in areas with important viewscapes would be publically opposed in "the public interest." 

 

Experience elsewhere shows that counties with a smart growth plan often do better in the long run.  New residents like the open space, infrastructure investment is better targeted to meet the county’s needs and financial resources, and critical water resource constraints like flood control and future water use are factored into plans from the beginning.

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

The smart growth plan would require a $2 million investment over the next five years by the county for land use research, zoning law development, building the "shell" for a small business center, and green space development.  An additional $300,000 would be set aside for the purchase of conservation easements in "at-risk" lands with important viewscapes.  The small business center would serve as the hub for the zoned residential area. It is expected to create 25 temporary construction jobs and 100 permanent jobs in the long term. Green space development would include a small park and hiking trails located just outside of Cedarville.  The total long term return is expected to net $3 million from the business center and tourism dollars associated with the recreation area.

 

This plan would consider future water resource needs.  In the long term the county would reach a sustainable level of development by ensuring that water resources are not compromised early in the development process.  The zoned open space will provide areas for ground water recharge and water quality protection. Residential and commercial areas would be built to minimize impervious surfaces, reduce stormwater runoff, and increase infiltration.  This will be important as Cedarville expands and water resource needs increase.

 

Buffer Zone Ordinance

Background Information

 

Many residents in the county view water recreation and tourism as an important part of the county’s economic future. Buffer zones play an important role in keeping pollution from farms and development from entering streams and rivers.  A buffer zone ordinance would help protect local water quality and enhance water recreation tourism by limiting development along rivers and streams. The ordinance would restrict new development within 50 feet of any waterway.  The county would also start a buffer zone rehabilitation initiative along the South Fork River and its tributaries. 

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

The county would invest $1.5 million into the buffer zone rehabilitation initiative.  This initiative would include installing mixed grass and tree buffers along the South Fork River and the development of a river-side park with hiking trails and stream access. Additional money for farmland buffer zone rehabilitation would be available through an existing federal program.  Under this program, farmers who restore buffers would receive payments from the government as a subsidy for making their land unavailable for crops and livestock.  Residents located along waterways would receive tax advantages under this ordinance to compensate for the development restrictions.

 

Protecting current buffer zones and installing new buffers would reduce the water pollution entering the South Fork River, and make the South Fork more attractive for water recreation activities like fishing and canoeing. This will help the economy by reducing drinking water treatment costs and attracting tourism.  The initiative will also help protect wildlife.

 

1000 Unit Subdivision

Background Information

 

A local family, which has lived in the county for five generations, is in financial trouble. They have decided to sell 2,500 acres off the homeplace to pay their debts.  The property is located in the headwaters region of a local trout fishery about five miles from the Cedarville.  Ninety percent of the property is forested, ten percent is covered in hay fields, and a pond covers about 15 acres.  The family would prefer to see the county purchase the property, but land developers are also interested in the property.   One of the developers wants to build 1,000 housing units, as well as timber seventy-five percent of the forested area. 

 

Economic and Water Resource Impacts

 

Development of the subdivision would create 200 temporary construction jobs over three years.  The development would need the county to build waterlines to the site and expand the drinking water facility.  If the project is approved, the developer would pay the upfront costs of extending the waterlines and increasing water storage at the water treatment plant.  By agreement with the county, the developer would recover those costs over a number of years by receiving user fees until the investment is paid off.  However, the county would have to increase the local school capacity, and provide additional emergency and social services for the new residents. This would cost the county over $31 million in the long term (10 years). These costs would create an economic burden on the county if new jobs and industry are not created to offset the costs. 

 

This development would have a significant impact on water resources.  Local streams would receive an influx of pollution from the houses that would impact downstream water quality and aquatic life.  An important groundwater recharge area would be damaged, and available water resource quantity would be reduced.  Due to runoff from the developed area, flooding in the area would become more frequent, and erosion damage to streams more severe.  Supplying the new customers would require use of an additional 91 million gallons of water from the South Fork River every year. This might result in low flows during drought years, which could kill fish and other aquatic life and might violate permit requirements to maintain minimal flow.  This additional water use could limit future economic development and dramatically reduce county's water resources.  If this development is built water resources need to be properly managed in other areas of the county.